Could the tragedy have been foretold? Could the effects have been less devastating in terms of human lives?
I’m very lucky: I live in Milan, in the heart of Po Valley, one of Italy’s region less exposed to earthquakes’ risk. I read the news from L’Aquila this morning, while having my breakfast as all the newspapers’ readers in every part of the world. And I was surprised that a similar tragedy occurred in my own country without any italian citizen living in northern Italy even felt or imagined anything. The lack of any tangible signal can be explained by the distance between Milan and L’Aquila, which however is not so big to reduce the emotive impact and the pain for our compatriots. But beside these feelings there are also a lot of questions which arise as I go on reading more and more news on Italian and foreign newspapers.
Italy lies on two fault lines and has been hit by powerful earthquakes in the past, mainly in the center and south of the country. Why are we so unprepared? I’m not referring to people, who probably are trained in these regions to flee in the open air when earth begins to quake. I’m wondering why buildings are not predisposed to resist to similar events.
I know we are a country characterized by historical buildings dating back centuries, full of cultural symbols and art. But when people lives and safety comes to the point a better compromise between preserving and rebuilding maybe could be found. I’m sure a lot of people could point to my comment as a way to make the question too easy and maybe they are right in some respects. But I think we can’t forget that a similar tragedy occurred just few years ago in Molise (2002, San Giuliano di Puglia) when a school collapsed due to an earthquake causing the death of 27 children and the teacher. Every time I come to know about similar events in Italy I can’t help asking myself if the loss in terms of human lives would be less in a more equipped country. Maybe these are fool questions. I don’t blame a particular political party. This is not a theme which can be used in the italian political debates to support or denigrate one party or the adverse one. These events keep on happening from time to time without any change in the final result.
Just to quote some examples (full list):
- 2002 – 30 die, including 27 pupils and their teacher, in the southern town of San Giuliano di Puglia,
- 1997 – 13 die and priceless cultural heritage lost in the central Umbria region,
- 1980 – nearly 3,000 people die, some 9,000 injured and 30,000 displaced near Naples.
In this particular case the questions arising in my head are more than in previous tragedy (San Giuliano, 2002): could the deaths have been prevented? Some days ago (on April the 1st) a news appeared on some italian headlines (Corriere della Sera, Abruzzo 24h) referring of a big earthquake forecast. Giampaolo Giuliani, a researcher at Gran Sasso laboratory, asserted an earthquake of relevant impact could be expected during the night between March the 29th and the 30th in Sulmona (a city located in L’Aquila’s district). Giuliani based his forecast on detectors aimed to reveal concentration of radon gas around seismically active areas. He only really miscalculated the timing. Is it just a coincidence (right place in an interval of time of a week)? Giuliani was reported to police for “spreading alarm”. Some scientists pointed out quakes can’t be foretold in advance. According to some opinions a forecast of an earthquake with so great error in timing is useless because people can’t be evacuated weeks in advance. All right opinions…
In previous days I didn’t notice the news. Today in Italy it is subject of discussion and appears in evidence in almost all headlines immediately after the constant updates from L’Aquila. In foreign newspapers some allusions to Giuliani’s forecast appeared in the last hours. Is this forecast really a simple coincidence? Earthquakes can’t really be foretold? Or is this just an example of what we can loose ignoring science new discoverings?
A question remains: What if people had been evacuated last week? Was it possible? A larger number of detectors could make earthquake forecast a reality (as weather forecasts actually are)? In front of present L’Aquila’s people suffering these questions are useless… but what for the future?
Elisa Camozzi
